2024-25 NBA Playoff Picture | Odds Shark

The betting odds for NBA playoff probability have eliminated a large portion of teams who are either strongly in contention to qualify or have zero chance stemming from their current win-loss record. Those still looking to secure their spot, though, can be wagered on for the time being, and there’s value to be had.

Here’s an updated look at the odds of eligible teams to either make or miss the playoffs, along with the probability of each of the Association’s 30 squads to clinch a berth.

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2025 NBA Playoff Betting Odds

Odds as of January 31, 2025 at FanDuel; Playoff Probability via Basketball-Reference.com

Best Bet To Qualify For NBA Playoffs: Golden State Warriors (+194)

It was once a foregone conclusion that Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors would be one of the final 16 teams competing for the Larry O’Brien trophy, as Basketball-Reference.com once had them at a 99.9-percent chance of being a part of the postseason. That likely stemmed from the team’s 10-2 start, but since that time, Golden State has gone just 14-21 and is now on the outside looking in as the 11th seed in the Western Conference, although they’re tied with the Sacramento Kings for the No. 10 spot in the play-in tournament.

Injuries have started to pile up, with the biggest being a right ankle sprain to Jonathan Kuminga which has kept him out for the entire month of January and beyond. It’s hard to bet against Curry and head coach Steve Kerr, though, because even if they need to run through the play-in bracket to land one of the final two spots, they’ll be heavily favored to do so.

Best Bet To Miss NBA Playoffs: Los Angeles Lakers (+160)

Despite holding down the fifth seed in the West, only 3.5 games separates the Los Angeles Lakers from the likes of the Warriors, Kings, Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Los Angeles Clippers. As things stand, the Lakers possesses the second-worst defense of the group by allowing 114.1 points per 100 possessions, and now Anthony Davis is dealing with an abdominal strain which will keep him sidelined for some games.

LeBron James is 40 years of age with a lot being asked of him at this stage of his career, and barring a dramatic shift during the upcoming trade deadline, Los Angeles’ lack of depth will continue to be an issue moving forward which could lead to its demise. There’s only so many times you can go to the play-in well and hope to cash in that way, and the Lakers’ luck may be running out.

Most NBA Playoff Appearances By Active Teams