Okay NFL fans, let’s dive into all the latest NFL MVP odds.
The race for the 2024-25 NFL MVP is currently led by Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. He has few equals on the football field and is the unequivocal king of the city of Buffalo. Is there anything number 17 can’t do?
Lamar Jackson (+250) finds himself in second place on the NFL MVP odds board, with Saquon Barkley +1600 and Joe Burrow (+3000) still hanging around.
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2024-25 NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | -320 |
| Lamar Jackson | +250 |
| Saquon Barkley | +1600 |
| Joe Burrow | +3000 |
| Sam Darnold | +15000 |
| Jared Goff | +20000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +50000 |
Odds as of December 31, from FanDuel
NFL MVP Pick: Saquon Barkley (+1800)
We’ve recommended Josh Allen in this space for some time. But, his odds are now so juiced there’s little value in backing the Buffalo Bills stalwart. Instead, let’s turn to the Philadelphia Eagles dynamo. If you’re not betting on Allen at this point, you may as well swing for the fences.
Barkley continued his jaunt towards Eric Dickerson’s rushing record with a 124-yard outing against the Carolina Panthers in Week 14 and is now just 100 yards away from the record heading into Week 18. Saquon has now rushed for 100-plus yards in five of his last eight games. He’s averaging an insane 5.8 yards per carry in his first season in the City of Brotherly Love, and is churning out 125 rushing yards per game. Should he continue his insane production, the former Penn State star will set a new single-season rushing record with 2,124 rushing yards.
He’s added 15 total touchdowns and his 31 rushes of 10+ yards leads all players. On top of that, he’s played the role of ultimate closer for the Eagles. Barkley leads all backs in rushing yards, touchdowns, first downs and yards per carry in the fourth quarter. Importantly, Saquon gets a cupcake schedule of brutal run defenses as the Eagles finish the season against the division-rival Giants. All three are in the bottom-eight teams in rushing EPA allowed this season.
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NFL MVP Winner History
| Year | Player | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson | QB | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | QB | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | QB | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | QB | Carolina Panthers |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
NFL MVP Odds Betting Strategy & Trends
Keep in mind, Lamar Jackson was +1400 to take home the award at this time last year. Going further back, Mahomes was +800 in 2022, followed by Aaron Rodgers at +800 in 2021, and Rodgers at +3000 in 2020. The electric Jackson was +4000 prior to his spectacular 2019 breakout season. Before that, Mahomes the magician was a longshot before his own breakout season at +3525. All of this to say, there is value on the NFL MVP futures board if you look further down the odds.
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All you have to do is determine which quarterback you think will break out in 2024. No other position has taken home the MVP trophy since Adrian Peterson’s spectacular 2,000-yard campaign in 2012. The odds of a non-quarterback winning the award are so long that San Francisco 49ers standout Christian McCaffrey currently sits 19th on the odds board at +5000. Having said that, McCaffrey put up over 2,000 total yards and scored 21 touchdowns in 2023 and finished third in MVP voting.
So when it comes to betting on NFL MVP handicapping, we’ll stick to quarterbacks only for now, and perhaps switch gears during the season if a non-QB really starts to separate. Historically, the two largest factors that determine the NFL MVP are touchdowns and team wins.
Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win MVP on a team that had fewer than 12 wins. Thus, we’re searching for a quarterback that has a chance to lead this team to a high number of wins, while contributing a high number of touchdowns in those victories.
With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Sportsbooks update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.
Teams With the most NFL MVPs
| Team | MVP Awards Won | Most Recent NFL MVP |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 10 | Aaron Rodgers (2021) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9 | Peyton Manning (2009) |
| New England Patriots | 5 | Tom Brady (2017) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5 | Steve Young (1994) |
| Buffalo Bills | 4 | Thurman Thomas (1991) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4 | Rich Gannon (2002) |
| Cleveland Browns | 4 | Brian Sipe (1980) |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4 | Marshall Faulk (2000) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | Patrick Mahomes (2022) |
| Denver Broncos | 3 | Peyton Manning (2013) |
| Tennessee Titans | 3 | Steve McNair (2003) |
| Washington Commanders | 3 | Joe Theismann (1983) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | Adrian Peterson (2012) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | Boomer Esiason (1988) |
| New York Jets | 2 | Joe Namath (1969) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2 | LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) |
| New York Giants | 2 | Lawrence Taylor (1986) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 | Lamar Jackson (2019) |
| Carolina Panthers | 1 | Cam Newton (2015) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1 | Shaun Alexander (2005) |
| Chicago Bears | 1 | Walter Payton (1977) |
| Detroit Lions | 1 | Barry Sanders (1997) |
The Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never produced an NFL MVP.
