The horse racing broadcaster has picked out four picks – all from Sandown – for this weekend’s racing, including one in the Tingle Creek.
Once again, the weather will play a significant role in proceedings this weekend. Sandown will be buffeted by winds, while Aintree is forecast a level of rain that at best will make things testing, and at worst could put the whole meeting in doubt. As a result, the selections will all come from Sandown this week.
The feature races quality-wise are the two Sandown Grade 1’s with the Tingle Creek holding centre stage. Jonbon is deservedly a short-priced favorite and it is hard to pick holes in his form, not least because he had Boothill and Edwardstone behind him in the Shloer last time despite looking a little more in need of the run than usual. If conditions do become brutal, however, then taking such a short price doesn’t appeal, and backing EDWARDSTONE
15/2
(15:00 Sandown) either each-way or in markets without Jonbon looks an angle to exploit.
Edwardstone isn’t as good as Jonbon, but he does handle deep ground and has assembled a good body of work which – outside of the favourite – others can’t yet match. He has won the race in the past and is helped tactically by the presence of JPR One, who is likely to make the running, allowing Edwardstone to revert to being more quietly ridden. Last time the pressure was on a bit to try and press Jonbon, who was getting a soft time on the front end which resulted in Boothill getting by Edwardstone on the run in. With that race under his belt and Alan King’s horses running well, he appeals as being overpriced, whichever strategy you choose to employ.
The other Grade 1 looks priced up about right, with L’EAU DU SUD
1/1
(13:50 Sandown) looking a worthy favourite. He has taken well to chasing and showed with his placed efforts in the Betfair and County Hurdles that deep ground holds no fears. Touch Me Not’s Punchestown victory was made easier by Fascile Mode’s capsize, which also brought down Jordans in the process. Touch Me Not is a sound-jumping front runner, attributes which suit Sandown, but L’Eau Du Sud should just get a nice trail into the race and pick him off up the hill. Rubaud would certainly be an interesting runner making his chasing debut straight into a Grade 1, but the ground looks to have gone against him, and I would be surprised if he took his chance.
Conditions were similarly attritional on this card 12 months ago, and that could mean two horses who won that day can repeat their victories.
The first is OPERATION MANNA
7/1
(13:15 Sandown), whose good record when fresh and proven ability to handle deep ground tilts the scales in his favour in the Pertemps Qualifier. He does have to cope with a 5lb higher mark but gets on very well with his claiming rider and with his record off breaks of over 150 days (including debut) reading 1211, this is likely to have been the target from a while ago. He is a grinder who goes well at the track and this race rather than the Final in March is likely to be his objective.
The other is SPIRIT D’AUNOU
17/2
(14:25 Sandown) who did not really go on from winning this last season, which – coupled with an early capsize at Ascot last time – sees him line up off just a 4lb higher mark. Hopefully he got far enough that day to bring him to peak fitness. The Moore yard has a good record with hurdlers on soft and heavy ground at the track (33/264 A/E 1.19). There are definitely a couple of flashier rivals in the field, including Kabral Du Mathan, who looked ahead of the handicapper last time, but he was a bit keen early and conditions may find him out on only his third hurdles start against some more gnarled rivals. It is Gary and Josh’s other runner in the race, Royal Way, who worries me most as he obviously fulfils the same criteria, but his run here as a juvenile on his debut was a little underwhelming so hopefully he can just set it up for Spirit D’Aunou.
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES
Two riders catch the eye this week, heading to venues where they have good career records and clearly are at home with the nuances of the track.
Chepstow – Ben Jones (21/118, A/E 1.44) who has six rides with the best probably saved until last with Douglas Hyde in the concluding bumper at 15:22.
Wolverhampton – Raul De Silva (43/411, A/E 1.36) who has just the one ride on Hawa Jumeirah in the 20:30 for Ismael Mohammed.
STABLE TRACKER UPDATE
Just the one runner last week with It’s Ravenous (second, evens) finding one too good at Doncaster. It remains early days for him over fences, and he has two runs left on the tracker.
Two additions, both from Newbury, starting with Madaket who came third on his reappearance at Newbury last week. He, like the winner of that race, comes from a very strong line of form from the track back in March which has now thrown up five next-time-out winners. His stable is in good form and he will go well next time.
Jubilee Alpha caught many people’s eyes when a running on third at Newbury last Saturday. He was very much given a ride to educate, which may still have paid dividends had he not clattered his way through the final two flights just when the taps had been turned on.
Both are added to the list, a full copy of which can be found here.
COLUMN PERFORMANCE 2024
(Actual Winners vs Expected Winners, A/E Ratio par = 1.00)
Selections 62/60.57 A/E 1.02
Jockeys For Courses 61/61.89 A/E 0.99
Stable Tracker 29/31.81 0.91
Overall Performance 152/154.27 A/E 0.99
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