We’ve got two of the best teams in football, two of the best quarterbacks in football, and two of the biggest current rivals battling it out in the Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship game. With plenty of top-tier offensive talent on both sides, this is a great matchup to lock in some props for.
You can check out my overall game picks for the Bills vs Chiefs, but here I’ve got my top three player props for the 2025 AFC Championship game:
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Prop #1: Josh Allen Anytime TD (+110) FanDuel
Josh Allen’s biggest weapon is his ability to pound the rock in near the goal line. The Bills QB posted 12 rushing touchdowns this regular season, scoring in six of his final seven contests.
Last week against Baltimore, Allen didn’t even play very well, throwing for just 127 yards and no passing scores. But still, the Buffalo big boy ran the ball in for two touchdowns.
Facing a Chiefs defense that allowed the eighth-most rushing touchdowns to opposing QBs, Allen just needs his team to get him close to the goal line in order to run the ball in.
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Prop #2: Kareem Hunt OVER 34.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel
Isiah Pacheco may be healthy, but Kareem Hunt is clearly Kansas City’s RB1 right now. Hunt has led the Chiefs in carries and rushing yards in each of his last four games played. He’s gone OVER this 34.5-yard rushing mark in three of his last four contests and 11 of 14 games, total.
With temperatures expected below freezing for this AFC Championship game in Kansas City, I expect run games will be key for both sides. We saw how much Buffalo struggled to stop the run in the cold last week, with three different Baltimore players gathering OVER 35 rushing yards. I expect Hunt to feast on a similar weakness on Sunday.
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prop #3: Dalton Kincaid OVER 33.5 Rec Yards (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
As you can tell from my Bills vs Chiefs game picks, I do think Kansas City is going to win this one. But, not before a huge day from Dalton Kincaid.
Kincaid faces a Chiefs defense that allowed over 70 yards per game to tight ends this year, the most in the NFL. In the last four weeks, opposing tight ends have averaged 51 yards per game against these Chiefs. That includes Dalton Schultz putting up 63 yards in last week’s playoff game.
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Schultz has gone OVER 33.5 receiving yards in two of his last four games and seven times this year. Last year in the Divisional Round, Kincaid put up 45 yards on five receptions against these same Chiefs.
