Canada Elections, Political Betting, and Odds Makers
The history of betting on elections, legally and not, is long and rich, given that placing a wager on who would be the next pope dates back to at least 1503. In those days, though, you could not make a parlay by adding which color smoke would arise from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel.
In more modern times, Winston Churchill was a regular political bettor, including his £25 wager in 1909 with the Duke of Marlborough on the fate of the budget in the House of Lords.
Churchill’s bet that the Lords would not veto the budget was a loser, and though he wrote Marlborough a cheque, it was never cashed.
Unethical, Perhaps, but Not Illegal
Much more recently, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary private secretary, Craig Williams, was questioned by the Gambling Commission about a £100 bet placed with the bookmaker Ladbrokes. For that bet, he got five-to-one odds that a general election would be called for July. That wager was made three days before Sunak announced the election would be held on July 4.
Two other politicians were questioned about similar bets
Also last year, Tory candidate Phillip Davies bet £8,000 that he would lose his Shipley seat in West Yorkshire in the upcoming election, and a Labour candidate made a smaller bet against himself. The bets were not illegal, but have been described as being “in poor taste.”
US Election Numbers
The 2024 presidential election in the US was a big winner for Polymarket, an online betting platform that is “not supposed to” allow US users, but that realized more than $3.6 billion in wagers. Of that, $1.5 billion was bet on Donald Trump and $1 billion on Vice President Kamala Harris.
Next up, the April 28 Federal Election in Canada
FanDuel Canada says political betting is similar to wagering on sports in that “users are betting on an uncertain outcome that is influenced by a variety of trends and data, meaning the odds will change for certain props based on what is happening at that given time.”
“Similar to sports, you will see a resemblance to markets like outright winners and futures. However, to ensure that our customers can enjoy these unique betting opportunities while maintaining responsible play, all novelty markets have low maximum bets at FanDuel Canada,” said a book statement.
Only a few months ago, the Liberal Party of Canada was seen as dead in the water, but in what FanDuel Canada calls “a surprising shift in both the odds and bettor activity,” thanks to Mark Carney becoming the new leader of the Liberals and being sworn in as Prime Minister, odds on the Conservative Party went from –450 in February to +220.
(Mike Myers’ humorous support of Carney didn’t hurt, either.)
Betting Moves to the Right
FanDuel Canada is finding that despite the Conservative odds getting longer, they are getting more bets than the Liberals. “Just in the last few weeks, we have seen a shift from bettors wagering more on Liberals to now, more bets being placed on the Conservatives,” said the sportsbook.
“The most popular market with Ontarian bettors is which party will win the 2025 Federal election, then which political party will win the most seats in Ontario, and the Popular vote. In terms of the province-by-province seat count offering on FanDuel Canada, Ontario has been the most popular, with over 60% of bets being placed on the Conservatives to win, followed by Alberta, which has a majority of bets on the Conservative Party as well.”
About FanDuel Canada
FanDuel Group launched operations in Ontario in 2022. The sportsbook takes bets on sports such as football, basketball, baseball, hockey, golf, boxing, motorsports racing, and more. It also offers live in-play betting options, allowing users to place bets during games and events. The app lets customers follow real-time updates on scores, game statistics, and odds.
