The second game on the schedule for the start of the 2025 NBA playoffs on Saturday pits the No. 4 Denver Nuggets against the visiting No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers for Game 1 at Ball Arena, and we’ve assembled three expert player prop picks for your betting pleasure.
Here’s an in-depth look at those player props to potentially boost your units, including an assists prop in which we’ll be wagering an OVER for Clippers point guard James Harden (-102) on April 19.
Series Preview: No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
Game Preview: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30 p.m. ET
James Harden OVER 9.5 Assists vs. Nuggets (-102 at FanDuel)
One of the biggest wild cards in this best-of-seven is how healthy and effective will Clippers superstar Kawhi Leonard look, with some of the downsides for bettors being that not only has his body let him down in the past, but he didn’t play the Nuggets once during the regular season. He may be the second-most important player in this matchup behind three-time league Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic, but in order to wager on his numbers and feel comfortable about it, waiting until later on in the series feels like the best course of action so we can gauge how he looks physically.
If the concerns are all for not, then that serves this assists prop for Harden even better. Leonard will be the primary scorer, not that Harden couldn’t be, but Leonard being in top form gives the 35-year-old guard a reliable weapon by his side to distribute the rock to and hopefully extend his streak of double-digit dimes. Harden finished with 10 or more assists in each of his last five games to close out the regular season and six of his last seven, as well. He didn’t do it once in the nine games prior, so he’s going into Game 1 with some much-needed momentum in that regard.
Now he only totalled 10 assists over the last two games against Denver which both took place in the Mile High City, but as mentioned earlier, Leonard was unavailable for both and Los Angeles lost each of those road outings by 20 points or more. With the Clippers at full strength, Harden can lean more into directing traffic rather than feeling the need to take over offensively, and that should bode well for his final assist tally.
Aaron Gordon OVER 20.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Clippers (-130 at FanDuel)
You can make an argument that the Nuggets’ second-most important player against Los Angeles will have to be Aaron Gordon, as he’s going to be assigned to Leonard more often than not as Denver lacks the size and strength at the wing positions beyond him for that defensive matchup. Leonard should see a ton of action as long as his body can handle it, and that means Gordon will need to keep himself ready and out of foul trouble to balance out those minutes and not leave his side in a tough jam.
His combination prop of just 20.5 points and rebounds works out swimmingly with the assumption being that the 29-year-old forward will have a substantial role. Gordon went OVER that number in each of his last three games and nine of his last 15 heading into the postseason. He also averaged 19.6 points and 4.9 rebounds in his last 12 outings, and simply replicating that production would take us comfortably OVER once again.
The Nuggets were 14-6 during the season when Gordon dropped 16 or more points, so interim head coach David Adelman would be wise not to forget about him in his starting lineup. We all know the absurd box scores Jokic can produce on a whim, and Jamal Murray always emerges as a bright spot during the playoffs, but Gordon can and does need to be that third guy on both ends of the floor to help advance Denver to the conference semifinals.
Michael Porter Jr. UNDER 16.5 Points vs. Clippers (-128 at FanDuel)
Perhaps it’s the lingering vibes stemming from his performance against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round last year that’s screaming “Fade Michael Porter Jr.” at the moment, but it’s loud enough to want to lean into an UNDER for his points prop to at least start this series off.
Porter Jr. finished with nine or fewer points in five of those seven games versus Minnesota, which in fairness was forever and a half ago, and he was dominant in the first round against the Los Angeles Lakers scoring 20 or more points four out of five times. Even so, that wasn’t a good look for the now 26-year-old forward, and the Clippers are just as strong defensively (109.4 points allowed per 100 possessions) as those Timberwolves were (108.4 points allowed per 100 possessions) back then.
Porter Jr. did go OVER 16.5 points the last three times he faced off with Los Angeles, but he also didn’t have someone like Leonard following him around on the perimeter either. There’s only so much an opponent can do to contain Jokic, but surely Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue will have a plan in place to ensure Porter Jr. isn’t left open as an outside marksman to be impactful, and that could mean throwing Leonard or a long wing like Derrick Jones Jr. his way early.
