The Los Angeles Clippers came incredibly so close to eking out a Game 1 victory on the road against the Denver Nuggets in their best-of-seven series, and we’ve got three expert player prop picks ready to go as these two teams collide once again at Ball Arena for Game 2 on Monday night as the visitors look to pull even.
Here are three player prop picks to potentially boost your units which lean heavily towards Denver, including an OVER on a PRA for Aaron Gordon (-118) on April 21.
Series Preview: No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
Game Preview: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET
Aaron Gordon OVER 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Clippers (-118 at FanDuel)
We made bank wagering on Gordon’s numbers in Game 1 by taking an OVER on 20.5 points and rebounds at -130 value, which he exceeded in points alone by finishing with 25 points to go along with eight rebounds after playing 46 minutes. The logic was that he was going to see a ton of time defending Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard as he was Denver’s best option to throw at the two-time Finals Most Valuable Player. That was undoubtedly true as Gordon defended Leonard more than three times as any minutes as any of his Denver teammates, with Leonard turning over the ball three times and only scoring six points in that matchup.
Now playing 46 minutes per game consistently moving forward isn’t sustainable, but if this is the Nuggets’ best chance to keep Leonard’s production at bay, then Gordon’s role isn’t at risk whatsoever. His PRA (points + rebounds + assists) being set at 24.5 is a safe play if he stays out of foul trouble, and he only had two personal fouls on Saturday.
Gordon ended the regular season with an OVER at this number in five of his last six appearances and 14 of his last 19, as well. Like we wrote on Saturday, there’s a strong possibility that the 11-year pro could be the Nuggets’ second-most important player by the end of this series when it’s all said and done. So far, so good.
Jamal Murray OVER 24.5 Points + Assists vs. Clippers (-110 at FanDuel)
Speaking of heavy minutes, Jamal Murray had Gordon beat in Game 1 by playing two more than his teammate at 48 which is the equivalent of a full regulation game, although Saturday’s outing did need an extra five minutes to determine a winner. Any concerns over his recent hamstring injury lingering seem to have vanished, because interim head coach David Adelman is not trotting out his No. 2 scorer for that length of time if he’s not close to 100 percent.
Murray took the second-most shots for Denver with 20, although he only hit seven to end up with 21 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists. That would have been his eighth-worst performance from an efficiency standpoint during the season, but with Michael Porter Jr. only taking four shots in total, Murray had to almost keep chucking it up to compensate for the Nuggets’ No. 3 guy being a ghost.
Saturday served as the fifth time in Murray’s last six looks at the Clippers that he’s gone OVER 24.5 combined points and assists. Denver’s second-unit has seemingly been reduced to eight guys, with Russell Westbrook being the only bench player to play any substantial length of time in Game 1. Player props for guys topping 40 minutes in the playoffs are ever so juicy, and Murray doesn’t have to look over his shoulder for someone raring to cut into his time.
Russell Westbrook OVER 10.5 Points vs. Clippers (-132 at FanDuel)
Westbrook giveth and Westbrook taketh away. The Nuggets and their fans experienced the full spectrum of emotions on Saturday as it pertained to how the 36-year-old veteran fared, watching him drill an uncontested 3-pointer with 24 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to put Denver up two. He was then indecisive and a bit overzealous on the final possession which sent the game to overtime before his side ultimately prevailed.
We don’t ask how and we don’t ask why. Simply put, Westbrook still ended up with 15 points on 17 shot attempts and was a net positive at +7 in 34 minutes. As frustrating as he can be, the former league Most Valuable Player is going to continue being an important cog to what the Nuggets look to do on the hardwood because that bench is sparse on viable options.
His 17 shots were more than he took in any game while playing for Los Angeles in last year’s postseason, so if that’s the degree of output Westbrook is going to have and his points prop is barely into the double digits, you need to nail the OVER basically all of the time. He’s now gone OVER 10.5 points in 12 of his last 15 appearances for Denver, as well, and that should continue here on Monday night.
