Richard Hoiles Betway column NEW
The horse racing broadcaster picks out his selections for a quiet weekend following the Cheltenham Festival, along with some statistical angles to watch.
After all the Festival madness, this weekend may feel a bit like after the Lord Mayor’s show, but there are some interesting horse racing betting opportunities spread between the cards at Newbury and Kelso that make up ITV’s Saturday coverage.
I have been waiting for SIOG GAEL 7/2 (15:15 Newbury) to step up to 2m 4f and so it looks particularly significant that this move has been reserved for the valuable Mares’ final. She caught my eye staying on into fourth at Windsor over the sharp 2m and was then no match for the speedier Bluey in what was effectively a match at Market Rasen. Successful in an Irish Point to Point prior to contesting bumpers, this trip will show her in much better light and with the yard just looking as if they are emerging from a quiet spell she is very much the one to focus on.
All season I have been mentioning that Dan and Harry Skelton have been focusing on ITV covered races to try and land the £500,000 David Power Cup first prize. RISKINTHEGROUND 10/1 (14:40 Newbury) looks a case in point. He also played his part in Dan’s quickfire start to the season, which established what now looks like a Trainer’s Championship winning margin, scoring four times between May and September and also achieving an excellent third at Cheltenham in October. His two runs back have been when out of his depth but picking up prize money behind stable mate L’Eau Du Sud in the Kingmaker at Warwick, and when a not-knocked-about fourth at Huntingdon. Harry Skelton returns to the saddle here with Riskintheground 5lb lower than that Cheltenham placing and looking ready to strike.
Later on in the card, JAVERT ALLEN / (17:00 Newbury) looks likely to continue on his upward curve and repeat his course and distance victory from earlier in the season. He saw it out really well that day despite racing keenly and facing a headwind up the home straight. Javert Allen has lots of scope and a big engine and if he can learn not to try to do it all on one breath can make up into a very useful performer. His enthusiasm contrasts markedly with Teddy Blue, who has been persuaded to win his last two starts without looking overly keen on the idea. His last win at Kempton was a real Rogue’s Gallery and I think Javert Allen will have him struggling from an early stage.
Up at Kelso, the consistent DARE TO SHOUT 6/4 (13:15 Kelso) should go well, especially if there is any more rain on the build-up to the race. He has a good record at the track, which includes a Novice Hurdle win on good ground and he has yet to finish out of the first two in four previous runs at Kelso.
Another horse who loves Kelso is GOLD DES BOIS 7/2 (15:35 Kelso), who can put a below-par run last time at Musselburgh behind him. He provided owner Ray Green with a milestone 500th winner as an owner when winning at the track in November and should get a good tow into the race off Escapeandevade, whose yard has their horses in good heart.
STATS ALL FOLKS
That 15:35 Kelso is full of course specialists, with four of the six runners having won at least twice at the track and Bollingerandkrug contributing six victories to the overall tally of 13 vs an Expected of 8.53 for an A/E of 1.61.
Regular readers of the Jockeys For Courses feature last year will likely remember the superb record of Ryan Mania at his local track. He has ridden 73 winners from 440 rides at Kelso vs an Expected of just 54.62 (A/E 1.34), As well as Gold Des Bois, he has three other rides including I Am Max (14:25) in the valuable Ladbrokes Go North Series Final.
Jennie Candlish has held a license since 2002 and until this season her best jumps total was 24. She is already on 43 for this campaign and has been one of the hidden success stories of 2024/25. She has won with three of her last six runners at Bangor-On-Dee and Regal And Royal (14:15 Bangor-On-Dee) will be looking for a hat-trick of course victories.
Mel Rowley horses that win are worth following on their next start. Of 57 last-time-out winners, 13 have won vs a low Expected return of 9.54, giving an A/E of 1.36. Charming Getaway (17:10 Bangor-On-Dee) won last time out at Ludlow shaping as if the extra trip here will suit.
