The horse racing commentator offers up his best bets for the third day of the Festival, including selections in both the Ryanair Chase and the Stayers’ Hurdle.
Some big fields to start on Day 3, which looks the trickiest day of Cheltenham betting so far.
13:20 Ryanair Mares Novices Hurdle
A surprisingly large field but it was reassuring to see GALILEO DAME 4/1 come here rather than run in the Triumph. A useful Listed level horse on the Flat, she has run two good races in juvenile company, including a decent second to Hello Neighbour at Leopardstown in the Dublin Racing Festival. As she has not won over hurdles, she will be kept to Grade 1 targets this season and if not successful will retain her novice status for next season, where this race could again feature on the agenda. She gets a very handy four-year-old allowance of 10lb and given she is battle hardened off the Flat, could well take advantage.
Main dangers look to be Sixandahalf, a similarly decent Flat horse and impressive on his hurdling debut, and the Paul Nicholls pair Jubilee Alpha and Like A Rose, both of whom will be bidding to give the trainer his 50th Festival victory.
14:00 Jack Richards Novices Limited Handicap Chase
At the beginning of the season I fully expected FIREFOX 13/2 to make up into an Arkle contender, but perhaps mindful of no 2m 4f Novice at the Festival this year it looks significant that he has been given enough chasing runs to qualify for this handicap. He has always had the look of a chaser about him along with a touch of class, and he is taken to show it here.
Nurburgring is hardly bred to be a chaser but has looked to be crying out for a step up in trip so over this 2m4f is definitely worth consideration. He sat much too far out of his ground in last season’s Triumph Hurdle. Winner of the Galway hurdle, this is his first start in handicap over the larger obstacles.
14:40 Pertemps Handicap Final
The key qualifier here could be the Leopardstown one run over Christmas, won by Win Some Lose Some with Feet Of A Dancer back in third place.
Win Some Lose Some has proved really progressive this year, with his first handicap victory coming off 106 and now lining up off 138. It is the fact that he may have shown his hand slightly more that makes me prefer FEET OF A DANCER 17/2 , who was trying the trip for the first time that day, Having qualified, there was no attempt to run the horse again and the stable have prepared a winner of this in the past.
15:20 Ryanair Chase
Even though I would have preferred to see him line up in the Gold Cup, FACT TO FILE 5/4 looks the first of two favourites to be with in the feature races. His John Durkan win showed he has the speed and the class at the distance, having won the Brown Advisory over 3m last season. He tended to pull too hard over three miles and with Il Est Francais in the field, a fast run race looks assured, which should help him settle and bring his stamina into play.
The big question over Il Est Francais is whether as a horse who has bled in the past he will find the undulations and uphill finish of Cheltenham too much to cope with. This looks the right option to run in, but the ferocity of Festival races tends to expose any physical weakness, so I am happy to take him on.
Last year’s winner Protektorat can certainly make the frame but Fact To File looks a stiffer adversary than any in last year’s field bar Gold Cup candidate Banbridge, for whom the ground was wrong last year.
16:00 Stayers’ Hurdle
This is generally a weak division, especially this side of the Irish Sea. The tough and genuine LUCKY PLACE 13/2 could be the exception and tries this trip for the first time after twice beating Champion Hurdle winner Golden Ace this season over 2m 4f. The form is solid enough and it is worth remembering he was one of the very few bright spots from last year’s torrid Festival for the yard, having finished fourth in the Coral Cup over 2m 5f. It would be strange if a small race I called at Taunton last season where Golden Ace beat Lucky Place would have contained both Stayers and Champion Hurdle winners!
Lucky Place’s stamina is not likely to be tested as there looks to be a potentially steady gallop, which is what puts me off The Wallpark, who looked all stamina when staying on into fourth in the Long Walk behind Crambo. He was qualified for the Pertemps Final but connections have opted to come here, and if there is a decent gallop he would certainly have claims to make the frame.
These two may be the main dangers to Teahupoo, and there was no disgrace in his return when outpointed by runaway Mares winner Lossiemouth at Fairyhouse. Just like last season before his win in this race, he has not run again and he clearly still looks top dog in this division having been unlucky in the race two years ago. Any further rain would help but is not essential.
16:40 TrustATrader Plate
Jagwar will no doubt be very popular here after progressing well through novice handicaps, but better value looks to lie with two of the older brigade in SEDDON 18/1 and FUGITIF 16/1 , who filled the first two places in this race in 2023.
Seddon lost his way a little after that but as a result has dropped back 2lb below his victory that day. His yard has had a quiet season but there were definite signs of a resurgence here on New Years Day when he went for home too far out.
It is amazing that Champion Jockey elect Sean Bowen is still looking for his first Festival victory, and that only four of his rides have made the frame. These include that second on Fugutif two years ago and he too has dropped below the mark of that day. He was given an unusual ride at Newbury over a trip too far and ridden more forward, suggesting connections may have been trying to put sharpness into his legs. Both are solid each-way bets, though the suspicion is that Seddon may have more of a winning mentality.
