After an unfortunate 1-3 finish on Monday with a few close calls, here are three NBA expert player props to get us back on the path to positive units, including an assists prop at plus money for Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo (+122) against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.
Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 5.5 Assists vs. Pacers (+122 at FanDuel)
Preview: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:30 p.m. ET
Antetokounmpo is currently in the midst of a three-game streak of UNDERs on 5.5 assists that’s only occurred two other times for him during the 2024-25 regular season, with the last happening in early December. He’s attempted 20 or more shots in each of those three outings, averaging 33 points on 61.2 percent shooting, and both Kevin Porter Jr. (18) and Damian Lillard (13) have totalled more dimes than The Greek Freak (11) during that stretch.
Indiana is competing on the second night of a back-to-back slate after getting blown out by the Chicago Bulls on Monday, 121-103. This marks the third time Antetokounmpo will see the Pacers and the first of two times he’ll play them this week alone. He registered a triple-double with 11 assists against them on Nov. 22, but in the most recent matchup on New Year’s Eve, the nine-time All-Star had only five assists in just under 35 minutes of action.
Oddsmakers are clearly looking at this number being an OVER with the under set at +122, but the Bucks are only a single game ahead of Indiana in the standings for home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs, so look for Antetokounmpo to prioritize his scoring here and leave the generating of assists to his guards.
Evan Mobley OVER 17.5 Points vs. Nets (+100 at FanDuel)
Preview: Brooklyn Nets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
You won’t see many greater spreads than the one listing the Cleveland Cavaliers as an 18.5-point betting favorite as the restless Brooklyn Nets at Rocket Arena on Tuesday, and that brings some hesitation for Cavaliers-centric player props considering the scoreboard could get ugly in a hurry.
The risk is still worth the reward when it comes to Evan Mobley, though, as he’s scored 18 or more points in eight of his last 13 appearances, including an 18-point, 13-rebound performance versus Brooklyn on Feb. 20. In fact, that was actually Mobley’s weakest scoring night in this matchup all season, as he had scored 23 and 21 points in the prior two meetings with the Nets, respectively.
Brooklyn has the fourth-worst defense in terms of protecting the rim, allowing the opposition to shoot 47.9 percent, so Mobley isn’t going to face a ton of resistance. Blowout or not, the 23-year-old big man should still impose his will en route to an OVER for bettors, and if he doesn’t, it’s not going to be because he got stifled.
Jalen Duren OVER 25.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Wizards (-106 at FanDuel)
Preview: Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. ET
The Washington Wizards just allowed the Toronto Raptors, who are a pedestrian rebounding team at best and were missing starting center Jakob Poeltl, to secure a franchise-record 73 boards in what amounted to a 15-point loss at Scotiabank Arena. Four players on Toronto finished with double-digit rebounds, as well, and Jalen Duren appears primed to be the next at Little Caesars Arena on Tuesday.
Duren has gone OVER 25.5 combined points and rebounds in his last two games and four of his last five, averaging 14.4 points and 10.2 rebounds while converting 72.2 percent of his shot attempts. He notched a double-double of 11 points and 10 rebounds against Washington in a 20-point blowout for the Detroit Pistons on Nov. 17 and only needed 18 minutes to pull it off, so anything more than that and his numbers could be boosted even further.
The combination of rookies Alex Sarr and Tristan Vukcevic won’t be enough to outmuscle Duren for rebounds, let alone keep him from getting easy looks at the basket. Like is also the case for Mobley against the Nets, the only real downside here is if Detroit doesn’t play Duren a ton if Detroit runs away with this one early, but as we saw several months ago, the 6-foot-10 center can make a huge impact in little time.
