Patrick Mahomes is the most important player for Super Bowl 59, so there are a million different prop betting markets available for the Chiefs’ QB. I’m leaning to the Kansas City QB’s UNDERs, though.
Here are three Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 59 props I love ahead of Chiefs vs Eagles:
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 251.5 Passing Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
This current version of the Chiefs isn’t the gun-slinging, point-scoring offense we’ve seen before. They’re methodical and defense-first. As a result, Mahomes hasn’t been asked to throw for big yardage, going UNDER 251.5 passing yards in nine of his 18 starts this year. He’s gone below this mark in both Chiefs’ playoff wins this year, too.
Mahomes has gone OVER 251.5 passing yards in just two of his last five playoff contests. He was held to just 182 passing yards in a 2023 Super Bowl against these Eagles, too.
Another key part of this bet, the Eagles’ current secondary is elite. They allowed the second-fewest passing yards in football this year, letting up just 189 per contest.
Mahomes UNDEER 23.5 Completions (-132 at FanDuel)
I’m doubling down on Mahomes having a quieter passing day in the Super Bowl with this completions prop.
He’s been held UNDER this 23.5 completions mark in eight games this year, including both playoff contests so far. In postseason wins over the Bills and Texans, Mahomes didn’t even get above 18 completions. In the last three years, Mahomes has been held UNDER 23.5 completions in six of nine playoff contests.
In Super Bowl 59, Mahomes faces an Eagles defense that allowed the seventh-fewest completions in the NFL. They Eagles have held opponent QBs UNDER 23.5 completions in three of their last five games.
Mahomes Anytime TD Scorer (+430 at FanDuel)
Mahomes isn’t known as a rushing QB, but in big games he often finds the endzone himself. In 20 postseason contests, Mahomes has seven career rushing TDs. He’s scored in 30% of his career playoff games, while this +430 line implies an 18.87% shot.
Mahomes is also running more than ever right now, with 18 rushing attempts in two playoff games this year — that’s the most in any two-game playoff stretch of his career.
Whether it’s designed runs like we saw against the Bills or scrambling near the goal line, Mahomes has a chance to find the pay dirt in Super Bowl 59. A much better chance than these +430 odds imply, at least.
