The marquee matchup for opening day of the 2025 NBA playoffs on Saturday pits the No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers against the No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves at Crypto.com Arena, and we’ve assembled three expert player prop picks for this highly-anticipated showdown.
Here are the three player prop picks to consider, including an OVER on 6.5 assists for the legendary LeBron James (-136) on April 19.
Series Preview: No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Game Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers, 8:30 p.m. ET
LeBron James OVER 6.5 Assists vs. Timberwolves (-136 at FanDuel)
The LeBron James era is still ongoing for the purple and gold, but the spotlight has shifted to not just being on him now that Luka Doncic has gone Hollywood (through no choice of his own, mind you). We’ve witnessed what Doncic is capable of against the Timberwolves in the 2024 Western Conference finals, famously drilling a game-winning 3-pointer over the outstretched arm of Rudy Gobert in Game 2 at the Target Center while scoring 32 or more points in four of the five encounters. That’s the Doncic everyone anticipates seeing 11 months later, this time in Lakers colors, but we can’t simply forget about James in this equation after the numbers he just produced at the age of 40.
The best-case scenario for Los Angeles is for James to take more of a backseat to Doncic, especially early. Father Time is undefeated, no matter what James’ longevity would make you believe, so should the Lakers have true aspirations of capturing a championship, James can’t be drained after the first round and expect to maintain a high level over the next month or two. That’s why his assists prop is so alluring, because if the scoring falls upon Doncic to deliver, and even Austin Reaves to a lesser extent, James can be focus on running the offense and creating scoring chances for his teammates, whether it’s by drive and kick or simply using his unworldly court vision to conjure up those looks.
James averaged 8.2 assists for the seventh-highest number of his 22-year career. In the 79 games he played, he went OVER 6.5 dimes 52 times at just under a 66-percent clip. Now he came up short doing so even once versus Minnesota, but as we’ll touch on shortly, his surrounding core has undergone quite the makeover since.
Rudy Gobert UNDER 23.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Lakers (-140 at FanDuel)
Gobert’s height and length as a 7-foot-1 center would seem advantageous for a matchup such as this considering Los Angeles lacks the interior size to combat him, but it could ultimately lead to him seeing the pine more often than not. The Lakers are certainly going to play small ball as frequently as possible to play Gobert off the floor, perhaps by even giving James some minutes at the five spot to make The Stifle Tower more of a liability than an asset.
Head coach JJ Redick knows his hoops, and it wouldn’t shock anyone to see the Lakers implement those lineups almost immediately to see how Minnesota counters. Remember, when Gobert was averaging a double-double of 14 points and 13 rebounds versus Los Angeles during the regular season, he did so during the Anthony Davis era prior to the Doncic deal going through ahead of the trade deadline. The opposing roster has obviously undergone some dramatic changes since then, so what was once a strength for the Timberwolves against this specific foe may no longer be the case.
We’ll just have to see how much of a factor Gobert can ultimately be, but Minnesota has frontcourt options who are more mobile and versatile like Naz Reid and Julius Randle if Chris Finch wants to go small himself. While the Frenchman did go OVER 23.5 combined points and rebounds in nine of his last 11 games, these are different circumstances and a Lakers team at home in the playoffs is a vastly superior threat to any of the teams the Timberwolves battled during that stretch.
Naz Reid OVER 16.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Lakers (-122 at FanDuel)
This Naz Reid wager coincides with the belief that Minnesota will in fact need to sit Gobert a lot more than it would like to. Last year’s Sixth Man of the Year is the perfect depth piece for just such a series, because at 6-foot-9 and a formidable 265 pounds, Reid can do things defensively that Gobert simply can’t, mainly get away from the basket and not be tap dancing when squaring up ball-handlers on the perimeter.
Reid’s numbers this season (14.7 points, six rebounds, and 2.3 assists) ere actually stronger than when he was honored with the John Havlicek trophy (13.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists) a year ago. That could be explained by his minutes jumping from 24.2 to 27.5, of course, but that’s also a good sign for the role he may serve in the playoffs after averaging 22.5 during the 2024 run.
Reaching an OVER on 16.5 points and rebounds 49 out of a possible 80 times (61.3 percent) isn’t nothing, and Reid could be the beneficiary of a potential lineup change should Gobert be unplayable. You obviously can’t anticipate something like that, but the writing is on the wall here with Reid having a greater impact on this series than his teammate. We’ll know a lot after Saturday’s Game 1 and make adjustments accordingly.
